Refiner Neste Warns of Weaker Biofuel Outlook, Shares Drop

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Company makes 3rd cut to renewables business outlook this year

Company makes third cut to renewables organization outlook this year


Reduces both margin and volume outlook


Weaker diesel market strikes biofuel prices


(Adds analyst, background, detail in paragraphs 2-3, 9-11)


By Elviira Luoma and Essi Lehto


HELSINKI, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Finnish refiner Neste on Wednesday cut the margin outlook for its biofuel service for the third time this year due to falling prices and likewise decreased its anticipated sales volumes, sending the business's share rate down 10%.


Neste stated a drop in the cost of regular diesel had affected what it can charge for the biofuel it makes in Europe and Singapore, while input costs for waste and residue feedstock remained high.


A rush by U.S. fuel makers to recalibrate their plants to produce renewable diesel has actually created a supply glut of low-emissions biofuels, hammering revenue margins for refiners and threatening to hamper the nascent industry.


Neste in a statement slashed the expected typical similar sales margin of its renewables system to between $360-$480 per tonne of biofuel, below $480-$580 per tonne seen in July and well below the $600-$800 seen in February.


The business now also expects renewables-based sales volumes in 2024 to be about 3.9 million tonnes instead of the 4.4 million it had predicted given that the start of the year, it included.


A part of the volume cut originated from the production of sustainable aviation fuel, of which it is now anticipated to offer in between 350,000-550,000 tonnes this year, down from in between 500,000 and 700,000 tonnes seen previously, Neste stated.


"Renewable products' list prices have been adversely affected by a considerable decline in (the) diesel rate throughout the third quarter," Neste stated in a statement.


"At the exact same time, waste and residue feedstock costs have actually not reduced and renewable product market rate premiums have remained weak," the business added.


Industry executives and analysts have said quickly expanding Chinese biodiesel producers are seeking new outlets in Asia for their exports, while Shell and BP have actually revealed they are pausing expansion plans in Europe.


While the cut in Neste's guidance on sales volumes of sustainable air travel fuel came as a surprise, the negative effect on biodiesel margins from a lower diesel price was to be anticipated, Inderes expert Petri Gostowski said.


Neste's share rate had actually reversed some losses by 1037 GMT but remained down 5.8% on the day and 48% lower year-to-date. (Reporting by Elviira Luoma, Essi Lehto and Boleslaw Lasocki; Editing by Terje Solsvik and Jan Harvey)

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